News
The day at a glance · 5 min read
Mood · Cautious
-10
Sentiment, −100 to +100
CLARITY Act Passage Odds
16%
Regulation & Policy
Frozen USDT
$61.19M
Regulation & Policy
Bitcoin Level
~$80,000
Bitcoin & Ethereum
Key driverSenate CLARITY Act cloture vote scheduled for 2:15 PM ET faces uncertain outcome with odds falling to 16% as Democrats prepare counterproposal
Daily briefCrypto & Web3· Money365.Market AI ·

Senate CLARITY Act Vote Looms Amid Crypto Tax, Tech Updates

Critical cloture vote at 2:15 PM ET faces uphill battle as odds fall to 16%; Solana upgrades transaction capacity while CoinEx shuts down

Regulation & Policy

Neutral
COIN
Coinbase Global (COIN) (common stock) and other crypto stocks slipped in premarket trading as the Senate prepares for a CLARITY Act cloture vote scheduled for 2:15 PM ET, with Senate Democrats preparing a counterproposal to the GOP's final offer. The odds of passage have fallen to 16% as key Democrats counter the Republican proposal, with banking groups stating the GOP's final text leaves stablecoin reward loopholes and tribal gaming interests warning that prediction market provisions threaten tribal sovereignty. A successful vote requires 60 senators to support opening debate on legislation that seeks to provide the US crypto industry with a more defined regulatory framework, though a failed vote could close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year given the November midterms.
The US House introduced a 114-page crypto tax package that would change the tax treatment of crypto fees, stablecoins and lending while leaving existing reward-tax timing unchanged, omitting provisions for deferring taxation on mining and staking rewards. The legislative developments come as the crypto industry makes a final push ahead of the Senate vote, with greater regulatory clarity viewed as positive for institutional participation and market liquidity.
The US Department of Justice is seeking $61 million in USDT allegedly tied to sanctioned Iranian oil sales, with Tether having frozen $61.19 million across 10 Tron addresses in 2025 that prosecutors allege were connected to black-market Iranian oil proceeds. The enforcement action represents ongoing government scrutiny of stablecoin usage in sanctions evasion schemes.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Neutral
Bitcoin (crypto token) slid from nearly $80,000 as markets awaited the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, with short-term holders approaching a full month in partial profit according to CryptoQuant analysis. The 30-day profit streak for short-term holders suggests improving odds of an enduring bullish BTC price reversal, with CryptoQuant flagging spot and futures volume spiking to multi-month highs in August as another sign marking the potential end of the bear market.
Ethereum (crypto token) and Base encountered setbacks in wallet standardization efforts as talks on unified account abstraction designs failed, according to Ethlabs researcher Derek Chiang. The divergence in technical standards between Ethereum and Base could impact interoperability and developer experience across the two networks, with each pursuing different account abstraction approaches following unsuccessful negotiations.

Crypto Stocks

Neutral
COINMSTR
Coinbase Global (COIN) slipped in premarket trading ahead of the critical CLARITY Act cloture vote, with the company's performance tied to broader regulatory clarity developments in Washington. The crypto exchange operator faces a key catalyst with the Senate vote, which if successful could pave the way for stronger institutional participation in the crypto market.
Strategy Inc (MSTR) (common stock) remained on the sidelines last week as other crypto treasury firms continued stacking Ethereum, Solana, and Bitcoin through a jittery September market. Treasury firms kept buying ETH, SOL, and BTC even as September prices sagged, though Strategy did not participate in the accumulation during the period of market weakness.

DeFi & Protocol Developments

Bullish

Solana Transaction Size Limit

4,096 bytes+3x

Zcash Supply Cap

21 million
Solana (crypto token) raised its transaction size limit to 4,096 bytes in a mainnet upgrade, more than tripling the previous capacity and giving developers more room for zero-knowledge proofs and transactions with multiple signatures. The protocol enhancement gives Solana an edge in supporting complex on-chain operations compared to its current capabilities, expanding the design space for decentralized applications requiring larger transaction payloads.
XRP Ledger (crypto token) is one vote away from starting its next major payments upgrade, with validator consensus approaching the threshold needed to activate new functionality. The upcoming upgrade represents a significant protocol evolution for the payments-focused blockchain network.
Zcash (crypto token) has been rallying strongly since August after Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) began trading on NYSE Arca, giving investors direct ZEC exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency features a 21 million supply cap and Proof-of-Work model strengthening comparisons with Bitcoin, while its optional transaction privacy differentiates it from BTC, with the NU6.3/Ironwood upgrade in July replacing the old Orchard shielded pool to improve supply integrity and security.

Industry Developments

Bearish

Withdrawal Deadline

Dec. 22
Hong Kong crypto exchange CoinEx announced it will cease operations after 9 years in business, citing significant crypto market contraction that has made operations unsustainable. The exchange stated that falling trading volumes and liquidity, along with rising regulatory and compliance costs, had exceeded reasonable boundaries, with withdrawals remaining open until Dec. 22 to allow users to recover their assets. The shutdown represents another casualty of the challenging market environment facing smaller crypto exchanges amid increased regulatory pressure and declining retail activity.

Looking Ahead

Neutral
The Senate CLARITY Act cloture vote at 2:15 PM ET today represents the most immediate catalyst for crypto markets, with 60 votes needed to advance the legislation and provide regulatory clarity for the US crypto industry. A failed vote could trigger negative price action and close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year given the November midterms, while even a successful vote may produce a sell-the-fact reaction as trader attention shifts to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. Markets will also monitor Thursday's US Jobless Claims figures and ongoing developments in the Middle East for macro direction, with the combination of monetary policy uncertainty and regulatory outcomes likely to drive near-term volatility across crypto assets and related equities.

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