Discounted cash flow
Cash-generative companies$104.53a share
$90.77–$122.84 at discount rate 9–11%
| Free cash flow FY2025 | $19.7B |
|---|---|
| Growth, years 1–5 / 6–10 | 2.7% / 1.3% |
| Discount / terminal rateDefault | 10.0% / 3.0% |
| Net debt | $19.7B |
Stock Fair Value Calculator
Your company
Johnson & Johnson · Health Care · Example company, enter any US ticker
JNJ: median of 4 model values
$116.49a share
Range $83.21 to $378.74
The price of $261.44 is 124.4% above the median model value.
Next step: Margin of SafetySource: SEC-filed annual accounts (FY2025) and Finnhub fundamentals; price as of Oct 9, 2026.
Four models, one scale
Price $261.44
$0$200$400$600
Bar: the value as the main assumption moves. Mark: the value at the default. Diamond: a fixed formula. Upright line: the price.
Source: SEC-filed annual accounts (FY2025); Finnhub fundamentals (dividend data single-source).
What each model assumed
Edit
Dividend discount
Dividend payers$378.74a share
$264.66–$665.66 at required return 9–11%
| Dividend per share | $8.16 |
|---|---|
| Dividend growth | 7.7% |
| Required returnDefault | 10.0% |
Graham Number
Profitable, asset-backed companies$83.21a share
A fixed formula, no assumption to vary
| EPS, trailing 12 months | $8.62 |
|---|---|
| Book value per share | $35.70 |
PEG fair value
Growing, profitable companies$128.44a share
$102.75–$154.13 at fair PEG 0.8–1.2
| EPS, trailing 12 months | $8.62 |
|---|---|
| EPS growth, 5-year | 14.9% |
| Fair PEGDefault | 1.0 |
Which model fits which company
| Model | Fits | Needs | Misleads when |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flowDCF calculator | Companies with steady, positive free cash flow | Free cash flow, two growth rates, discount rate, shares, net debt | Cash flow is negative or lumpy, or most of the value sits in the terminal year |
| Dividend discountDDM calculator | Mature dividend payers: utilities, banks, consumer staples | Dividend per share, dividend growth, required return | Dividend growth comes close to the required return and the value runs away |
| Graham NumberIntrinsic value calculator | Profitable companies with real assets on the balance sheet | Earnings per share, book value per share | The business is asset-light (software, brands), so book value understates it |
| PEG fair valuePEG calculator | Profitable companies that are growing earnings | Earnings per share, expected earnings growth, fair PEG | Growth is negative, one-off, or far above what can last |
| Margin of safetyMargin of safety calculator | Any of the above, as a second step | Your value estimate, the current price | It is only as good as the value estimate you bring to it |
How the models are run
Each model is the textbook formula from its own calculator, run on the company's figures: cash flow, cash, long-term debt, shares and net income from its SEC-filed annual accounts; earnings, book value, growth rates and dividend yield from daily Finnhub fundamentals.
Assumptions that are not data use the calculators' defaults: a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth for the DCF, a 10% required return for the dividend model, and a fair PEG of 1.0. Each bar shows how far the value moves when that one assumption moves: the discount rate or required return by 1 point either way, the fair PEG from 0.8 to 1.2. The Graham Number has no assumption to move, so it is a single point.
Growth in the DCF is the company's five-year revenue growth, capped at 15% a year for years one to five and halved for years six to ten. The PEG model uses five-year earnings growth, capped at 25%.
A model is left out, with the reason shown, when its inputs fail a check: capital expenditure or debt missing from the filing, negative free cash flow, trailing earnings more than 50% away from the last filed year, dividend growth within 2 points of the required return, or a bank or insurer for the DCF.
Textbook models with fixed defaults are conservative by design. Large, fast-growing companies often trade well above all four values; the gap between the models, and between them and the price, shows how much future growth the price assumes. Open any model to change what it assumes.
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