News
The day at a glance · 3 min read
Mood · Cautious
+15
Sentiment, −100 to +100
Chevron Expected Q3 FCF
$11.4B
Brent Crude (Sept Avg)
$114/bbl
COP 5-Year Return
143.2%
Key driverRefiner profit-taking advice clashes with expected major-oil cash windfalls from elevated crude prices
Daily briefEnergy· Money365.Market AI ·

Refiners Face Sell Calls as Majors Near Earnings

First Solar posts strong Q3 results while Chevron, Exxon prepare for Friday reports; Valero target lifted amid mixed refiner outlook

Oil & Gas Majors

Bullish
01CVX
Chevron ($CVX) is expected to report $11.4 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter, approximately twice the amount needed to fund its dividend and share buyback program, according to market expectations ahead of Friday's earnings release. The energy company hit a record high ahead of the report, with Brent crude averaging $114 a barrel in September.
02CVX
Chevron ($CVX) also expanded its U.S. offshore exploration activity through a partnership with TotalEnergies focused on Gulf of Mexico acreage.
03XOM
ExxonMobil ($XOM) has benefited from elevated prices for crude oil and fuels despite some production being knocked offline by the Iran war, and the company is expected to announce a dividend increase, though the magnitude remains uncertain. According to Reuters, ExxonMobil ($XOM) and Chevron ($CVX) canceled plans for executives to travel to the United Arab Emirates for the ADIPEC oil conference next week due to security concerns.
04COP
ConocoPhillips ($COP) has delivered a 143.2% share price return over the past five years, prompting investor scrutiny over whether current valuation aligns with the company's earnings power in upstream energy.

Refiners

Bearish

VLO Fair Value (New)

$426.42+6.2%

VLO 5-Year Return

488.0%
01PSX
Investors who own refiner stocks should consider selling after a stellar year for the group, according to analysis targeting Phillips 66 ($PSX) and its peers.
02VLO▼ -1.01%
Valero Energy ($VLO) saw its fair value estimate lifted to $426.42 from $401.53 following a fresh round of analyst price target adjustments, though the research showed a mix of optimism and caution as rising targets sit alongside downgrades questioning how much of the strong refining backdrop is already reflected in the stock. The company has delivered a 488.0% share price return over five years, raising questions about how much of its earnings power may already be priced in.

Renewables & Clean Energy

Bullish

FSLR Q3 Net Sales

$1.2B

FSLR Q3 Gross Margin

58%

FSLR Q3 Net Income

$571M

FSLR Q3 Adj. EBITDA

$744M
01FSLR
First Solar ($FSLR) reported third-quarter net sales of approximately $1.2 billion, gross margin of approximately 58%, net income of $571 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $744 million, as the solar manufacturer advanced its U.S. manufacturing expansion, CuRe technology deployment, and perovskite research program. The company's cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology, U.S. manufacturing advantage, and strong balance sheet are viewed as creating a durable competitive moat that the market may be underestimating.

Utilities

Neutral

SO 30-Day Return

11.43%

SO YTD Gain

6.66%

SO 5-Year TSR

78.62%

DUK Close

$125.90+1.89%
01SO▲ +1.61%
Southern Company ($SO) overhauled its corporate bylaws with amendments reshaping how shareholders call special meetings, nominate directors, and vote on key matters, with the changes coming as the share price has shown a 30-day return of 11.43% and a year-to-date gain of 6.66%. The utility's five-year total shareholder return of 78.62% indicates long-term holders have experienced steady compounding, though current valuation suggests the stock could be approximately 4% below fair value.
02DUK▲ +1.89%
Duke Energy ($DUK) closed at $125.90, moving 1.89% higher from the previous trading session as the utility outperformed a broader market decline.

Oilfield Services

Neutral

Nabors Stock Move

+10%

Nabors Q3 Adj. FCF

$75M
SLB
01
Baker Hughes shares fell 6% despite third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.70 beating expectations and the company reporting a record backlog, as profit declined 33% year-over-year.
02
Nabors Industries shares jumped 10% after the drilling contractor reported $75 million of third-quarter adjusted free cash flow and raised its full-year cash forecast to materially higher levels, with the company highlighting record international margins.

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