Refiners Rally on Iran Supply Risk; XOM Earnings Eyed

Energy sector performance showed divergence as the NYSE Energy Sector Index fell 1.3% during Tuesday afternoon trading, even as the broader energy industry posted a 12.6% return over the past six months, outpacing the S&P 500 by 6.4 percentage points. Iran-related supply disruptions have supported refining economics, with record crack spreads benefiting U.S. refiners despite broader sector weakness. The energy industry faces elevated exposure to economic and energy cycle fluctuations as market participants await key earnings reports from major integrated producers later this week.

Phillips 66 ($PSX) share price reached $205.85 with a 30-day return of 19.92% and a one-year total shareholder return of 65.80%, supported by Iran-related disruptions and strong refining economics. ExxonMobil ($XOM) faces its July 31 earnings report after Bank of America Securities downgraded the stock, though market participants anticipate a strong profit report driven by elevated commodity prices. bp completed a transaction with TPAO in which the Turkish state oil company acquired a 15% interest in bp's Kirkuk project, leaving bp with a 43% stake as the majority shareholder in the partnership.

Enphase Energy ($ENPH) reported Q2 2026 results with EPS of $0.46 and revenue of $291.9M that nearly met estimates, prompting the stock to rebound 2.4% in after-hours trading following a recent decline. The solar microinverter manufacturer provided Q3 sales guidance of $290M to $320M versus the $304.253M analyst estimate, reflecting continued volatility in residential solar demand. Grid infrastructure and data center power demand themes emerged as WEC Energy Group gained favor over Dominion as regulatory clarity supports data center growth, while Caterpillar has benefited from AI's growing power requirements.

Southern ($SO) share price climbed to $96.78, up 11.01% year-to-date, as investor attention builds ahead of upcoming earnings results on expectations for higher earnings per share and revenue. The utility's 50.87% three-year total shareholder return reflects steady long-term gains driven by battery storage projects and natural gas growth prospects. XPLR Infrastructure continued to simplify its capital structure and advance repowering and energy-storage development plans during Q2 2026 while reaffirming its full-year financial outlook. Ranger Energy Services reported Q2 revenue of $176.5 million, up from the prior quarter, as activity strengthened across production-focused service lines and the company integrated American Well Services.

ExxonMobil ($XOM) reports earnings on July 31, with market participants anticipating strong results driven by elevated commodity prices and refining margins despite the recent Bank of America Securities downgrade. Valero Energy ($VLO) Q2 outlook rests on elevated crack spreads and resilient fuel demand, though high crude costs and renewable diesel volatility pose risks to the refiner's performance. Xcel Energy's Q2 earnings are expected to have risen on stronger demand, new rates, and grid investments, though higher financing costs may have tempered growth in the utility sector.