The day at a glance · 4 min read
Mood · Risk-Off
-65
Sentiment, −100 to +100
Bitcoin Support Level
$77.7K
Bitcoin Trading Level
$77,000
ETH Downside Target
1,900
Key driverBitcoin fell below $77,000 as markets weighed the $6.4 billion Binance hack, U.S. midterm elections, and expectations of further Fed tightening
Daily briefCrypto & Web3· Money365.Market AI ·

Bitcoin Tests $77K as Binance Hack, Midterm Vote Pressure Crypto

BlackRock's IBIT posts largest outflows since June as regulatory clarity hopes rest on U.S. election outcome

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Bearish
BTCETH
01
Bitcoin fell below the realized price of the one-to-three-month-old buyer cohort, threatening the $77.7K support loss that risked flipping it to new resistance. The cryptocurrency dropped below $77,000 as a chip rout deepened ahead of the U.S. midterm vote. Bitcoin faces its fifth consecutive weekly loss as midterm elections weigh on markets.
02
Ethereum consolidated as focus shifted to U.S. midterm elections while U.S.-Iran negotiations continue. The cryptocurrency has been on a sustained downtrend for a month as macro headwinds kept weighing on the asset. Sellers are targeting the 1,900 level, with buyers needing a breakout above 2,575 to rally toward 3,400.

ETF Flows & Institutional Activity

Bearish

IBIT Outflows

$405.3MLargest since June

BTC ETF Net Outflows

$399M

ARK COIN Purchase

$17M
01IBIT
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw its biggest Bitcoin ETF outflows since June, shedding $405.3 million. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds opened November with nearly $399 million in net outflows, reflecting cooling institutional demand.
02COIN▼ -3.98%
ARK Invest purchased $17M in Coinbase (COIN) stock after its post-earnings slide, adding shares of Circle (CRCL) before its results while trimming approximately $8 million in Bullish as crypto stocks declined. The trades come ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, which could influence the outlook for crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act.

Security Incidents & Exchange Developments

Bearish

Binance Hack Amount

$6.4B

Binance SAFU Spent

$580M~50% of reserve

Mercado Bitcoin Hack

$40M

EU Crypto Theft

$133M+$27M
BNB
01
North Korea denied any role in the $6.4 billion Binance hack after the FBI pointed to the TraderTraitor group.
02
Binance pledged to cover customer losses and concerns about broader contagion gradually eased. The exchange has spent half its SAFU bitcoin reserve, approximately $580 million worth, according to on-chain data.
03
Mercado Bitcoin pledged to cover all user losses after a near $40 million hack, following industry practice of protecting customers from security breaches.
04
ZachXBT identified an estimated $133M in suspected EU crypto theft, raising the estimate by $27 million after identifying additional exchange withdrawals that occurred after the theft was first flagged.
05
Arbitrum's council moved $30 million of Binance hack funds without the hacker's key, demonstrating the ability to intervene in certain stolen fund scenarios.

Regulation & Policy

Neutral

France Budget Year

2027Vote postponed
COIN
01COIN▼ -3.98%
Coinbase (COIN) announced that New Jersey users can resume staking after the state's Bureau of Securities withdrew its 2023 cease-and-desist order without ruling on its merits. Chief Legal Officer Molly Abraham named four additional states as next targets for re-enabling staking services.
02
France postponed the 2027 budget vote for the second time as the Nov. 17 deadline for the first reading examination nears, scrapping proposed crypto exit-tax provisions. The National Assembly delayed the vote on the budget's revenue section.
03
Crypto.com will withdraw its Hong Kong consumer app in February next year, citing regulatory changes in the jurisdiction.

Crypto Mining & Corporate Developments

Neutral

Cipher Mining Profit

$31M
01
Cipher Mining posted a $31 million profit as its AI pivot begins, marking a shift in business strategy beyond traditional Bitcoin mining operations.

Altcoin Developments

Bearish

SOL Support Broken

97.00

SOL Downside Target

75.00

SOL Upside Target

148.00
SOLXRP
01
Solana sold off sharply following news of the Binance hack, with concerns about potential contagion across the crypto ecosystem weighing on sentiment. The token broke through the key 97.00 support level and is approaching a major upward trendline, with sellers targeting the 75.00 handle and buyers defending for a rally toward 148.00. The macro backdrop remains challenging amid inflation risks, growth concerns, expectations of further Fed tightening, and geopolitical uncertainty limiting a sustained recovery.
02XRP
XRP logged one of its busiest days for new wallets in 2026, while Coinbase and ETF data show cooling U.S. demand, creating divergent signals about near-term momentum.

Looking Ahead

Neutral
01
Markets await U.S. midterm election results early Wednesday, with the potential for a Republican sweep expected to provide support through expectations of fiscal expansion and more favorable crypto legislation including the CLARITY Act. A Democratic sweep could lead to additional pressure if U.S.-Iran negotiations fail to progress.
02
This week's economic calendar includes U.S. Job Openings data, ADP employment figures, ISM Services PMI, weekly Jobless Claims, the NFP report, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, all of which could influence Fed policy expectations and risk appetite.
03
The macro backdrop remains challenging with inflation risks, growth concerns, expectations of further Fed tightening, and geopolitical uncertainty limiting potential for a sustained crypto market recovery. A breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations or more dovish Fed signals would be needed to change the current bearish trend.

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