AI Productivity Debate & Meta Compute Deal Lead Tech News

Analysts at Barclays stated that AI does not appear to be boosting productivity, raising questions about returns on massive infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, ASML Holding raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to between €43.00 billion and €45.00 billion and confirmed third-quarter guidance of €11.00 billion to €12.00 billion in net sales. The company highlighted that Intel ($INTC) Foundry has entered high-volume manufacturing using high NA EUV technology, marking a significant production milestone. ASML also declared an interim 2026 dividend of €1.88 per share payable on August 5, 2026.

The White House was considering options to block or sharply restrict Chinese AI models after Moonshot AI's July 17 release of Kimi K3, which can approach leading American systems in coding and agentic tasks while charging less. Semiconductor stocks contributed to broader market gains as chipmakers lifted technology indexes.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Salesforce ($CRM), though no details on the rationale were provided in the source material. ServiceNow ($NOW) faces disruption from artificial intelligence that threatens to hurt enterprise software companies that bill by the user. Analysts at Jefferies forecast ServiceNow will report results above guidance for key subscription metrics with a potential increase to its full-year subscription revenue outlook, supported by strong execution.

Big Tech earnings season is underway, with capital expenditure levels—rather than cloud growth rates alone—emerging as the critical factor that could decide the market's next AI trade. If Big Tech scales back its spending, it would have a cascading impact on semiconductor stocks as well as the global tech trade.

Meta Platforms ($META) is exploring a potential $10 billion compute lease deal with Anthropic, though it remains unclear how Meta, which is aggressively buying compute for its own needs, will have enough excess compute to sell at scale. A ChartMill analysis indicates $META fits a growth at a reasonable price screen with 24.85% EPS growth, a 0.85 PEG ratio, and solid profitability, making it a current candidate under Peter Lynch's buy-and-hold strategy.

Alphabet ($GOOGL) launched three new Gemini Flash models that compete on cost as OpenAI and Anthropic push into security tools. Amazon ($AMZN) opened its first Disaster Relief hub in Canada, dedicating a portion of an existing fulfillment center in Edmonton, Alberta to support Canadian communities before, during, and after major disasters, with specialization in wildfire response. The market is charging a premium for Amazon's stock, though its growth and profit metrics lag behind its tech peers.

The focus for investors will remain on Big Tech capital expenditure guidance as earnings season continues, with spending levels carrying implications for semiconductor demand and the broader AI infrastructure trade. ServiceNow is expected to report second-quarter results with potential upward revisions to full-year guidance. The debate over AI productivity gains identified by Barclays analysts may intensify scrutiny on return-on-investment metrics in upcoming earnings calls, particularly as companies justify continued aggressive infrastructure spending.