Crypto Stocks Bottom? MSTR Pauses, Bernstein Sees Opportunity

Strategy halts 13-week BTC buying streak as analysts call crypto equities oversold at 60% off peaks

Crypto Stocks

Bernstein analysts identified a potential bottom in crypto-related equities, noting that $COIN, $HOOD, and Figure are trading approximately 60% off their 2025 peaks despite weak Q1 earnings expectations. $COIN rose 3% in Monday trading while investors assessed the discount as a buying opportunity. Strategy ($MSTR) halted Bitcoin purchases for the first time in 13 weeks, holding 762,099 BTC worth $51.5 billion, as the company's funding strategy leans on equity and preferred issuance while Bitcoin remains below its cost basis.

Regulation & Policy

Crypto firms have secured temporary permission to trade tokenized stocks without the regulatory constraints imposed on traditional finance firms, with TradFi institutions mounting opposition to the development. $COIN-backed advocacy group Stand With Crypto has stepped up political activity as U.S. lawmakers debate key crypto legislation. The company also entered the crypto mortgage market through a partnership allowing homebuyers to post Bitcoin and USDC as collateral for federally supported loans through Better Home & Finance.

Institutional Adoption

Block has auto-enabled Bitcoin payments for millions of U.S. businesses, marking a significant expansion of merchant crypto acceptance. A viral calculator from Cornell student Ella Hough modeled $13,000 monthly retirement income from Strategy's STRC versus Social Security's $2,074 average, sparking debate about Bitcoin as a retirement vehicle. However, questions emerged on social media about Strategy's exit liquidity, with debates exposing the gap between the $51.5 billion paper value of its 762,099 BTC holdings and actual market depth.

Looking Ahead

Investors will watch whether Strategy ($MSTR) resumes Bitcoin purchases or maintains its pause as part of a strategic shift in its $42 billion acquisition plan. Q1 earnings from crypto stocks including $COIN are expected to show weakness, testing Bernstein's thesis that the sector is nearing a bottom. The ongoing Congressional debate over crypto legislation and tokenized securities regulation will remain a key catalyst for the sector.

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