USD/CHF — US Dollar / Swiss Franc
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What moves USD/CHF
USD/CHF is the number of francs one dollar buys, so a falling number means a strengthening franc. Switzerland runs a persistent current-account surplus and a long record of low inflation, and the franc is bought during periods of stress by investors looking for somewhere to sit. The practical effect is that this pair often moves on events that have nothing to do with either the United States or Switzerland.
Inflows like that are a problem for a small open economy, and the Swiss National Bank has pushed back against them more openly than most central banks. It held a floor of 1.20 francs per euro from September 2011 and abandoned it without warning in January 2015 — a day the franc spiked as much as 30% against the euro within minutes, closed roughly 20% stronger, and took several retail brokers down with it. It then ran the developed world’s lowest policy rate, −0.75%, from 2015 until 2022.
That history is the reason the SNB is part of the price rather than a background detail. Its quarterly monetary policy assessments state that it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, and its balance sheet is large relative to Swiss GDP as a direct result of past intervention.
The policy backdrop
| Central bank | Policy rate | Next decision |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.50–3.75% | 16 Sep 2026 |
Only one leg is shown because we hold the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and no other central bank. A rate differential needs both, so it appears on GBP/USD alone rather than being estimated here.
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