USD/CAD — US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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What moves USD/CAD
USD/CAD — the “loonie”, after the bird on the Canadian one-dollar coin — is the number of Canadian dollars one US dollar buys, so a rising number means a weakening Canadian dollar. The large majority of Canada’s merchandise exports go to the United States, which makes the pair unusually sensitive both to US demand and to the terms on which goods cross that border.
Crude is the second driver. Canada is among the world’s largest oil producers, and its heavy grades price at a discount to West Texas Intermediate that widens and narrows with pipeline and refining capacity. Both the level of oil and the width of that discount reach the currency, so “oil is up” is not on its own enough to say what the loonie did.
One thing makes this pair quieter than its commodity cousins: the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve face a broadly similar cycle, so the policy gap between them is usually narrower than the gap the Australian or New Zealand dollar has to contend with. When it does widen — when one is cutting and the other holding — the pair tends to notice quickly.
The policy backdrop
| Central bank | Policy rate | Next decision |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.50–3.75% | 16 Sep 2026 |
Only one leg is shown because we hold the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and no other central bank. A rate differential needs both, so it appears on GBP/USD alone rather than being estimated here.
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