EUR/USD — Euro / US Dollar
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What moves EUR/USD
EUR/USD is the rate at which the market swaps the euro area for the United States, and it moves mostly on the gap between what the two are expected to do with interest rates — not on the rates themselves. A cut that everyone already expects is usually in the price before it happens; the move comes when the expectation changes.
That makes the pair unusually sensitive to data that shifts expectations: US payrolls and CPI on one side, euro-area inflation and the ECB's staff projections on the other. A single surprise in either can move it further in an hour than a quiet month does.
The dollar leg carries a second job. In a scare, money moves into dollars regardless of what US rates are doing, because that is where the deepest markets are. So EUR/USD can fall on news that has nothing to do with Europe — which is why it is read as a risk gauge as much as a euro one.
The policy backdrop
| Central bank | Policy rate | Next decision |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.50–3.75% | 16 Sep 2026 |
Only one leg is shown because we hold the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and no other central bank. A rate differential needs both, so it appears on GBP/USD alone rather than being estimated here.
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