Terms of Trade

AdvancedMacroeconomics2 min read

Quick Definition

The ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices, indicating how much a nation can import for each unit of goods it exports.

Key Takeaways

  • Ratio of export prices to import prices, expressed as an index
  • Improvement means exports buy more imports; deterioration means the opposite
  • Heavily influenced by commodity prices for resource-dependent economies
  • Manufacturing/tech exporters tend to have more stable terms of trade
  • Persistent deterioration can constrain economic development in poorer nations

What Is Terms of Trade?

Terms of trade (ToT) measures the ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices, expressed as an index. An improvement in terms of trade (index rising above 100) means a country can buy more imports for each unit of exports—its exports are becoming relatively more valuable. A deterioration (index falling below 100) means the country must export more to pay for the same volume of imports. Terms of trade are influenced by global commodity prices, exchange rates, productivity differentials, and trade policy. Commodity-exporting nations (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil) see their terms of trade improve when commodity prices rise. Manufacturing and technology exporters tend to have more stable terms of trade. Persistent terms of trade deterioration can constrain economic development, a challenge faced by many developing nations that export raw materials and import manufactured goods.

Terms of Trade Example

  • 1Australia's terms of trade improved dramatically during the China-driven commodity supercycle as iron ore and coal prices surged relative to manufactured imports.
  • 2Oil-importing countries like Japan experienced terms of trade deterioration when crude prices spiked, requiring more exports to pay for energy imports.
  • 3Many developing nations face a secular decline in terms of trade as commodity prices fall relative to the manufactured goods they import—the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.