Oil Above $100 Again:Diesel Stays High, Gasoline Turns Lower

The U.S. crude benchmark, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), is back above $100 a barrel for the third time in 2026. It closed at $107.89 on October 20, the latest daily spot price. Brent, the international benchmark, has closed above $100 every day since September 3 and stood at $115.22.

Yet the two fuels Americans pay for at the pump have split. Regular gasoline fell for a fourth straight week, to a national average of $4.284 a gallon in the week of October 19, while diesel prices rose that week to $6.276.

Diesel's premium over gasoline has grown from $0.837 a gallon on June 29 to $1.992. Wholesale prices, inventories and the crack spreads calculated from them show why crude reaches the two fuels so differently, and why gas prices can fall while crude climbs.

Why Is Oil Above $100 Again?

Both crude benchmarks have climbed steeply since the start of summer. From June 29 to October 20, WTI spot rose 50.1% and Brent rose 60.9%, although both remain below their April 7 highs.

Brent was already above $100 before WTI crossed back over on October 15. Since then the gap between the two has narrowed from $21.64 to $7.33 a barrel, as Brent eased and WTI rose.

The Year's Episodes Above $100

WTI started 2026 at $57.21 a barrel. Its path since then, including each stretch of daily closes at or above $100:

What the EIA Says Pushed Prices Higher

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 6, 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) traces the rise to supply disruptions in the Middle East:

• The Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in 2026, a closure of the strait caused large production shut-ins, which the EIA estimates at 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) at the peak in May and 4.8 million b/d in September. That closure is also the backdrop to the gap between paper and physical oil prices.
• The East-West pipeline. In September, attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline temporarily halted flows. The pipeline is a bypass around the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the EIA estimates it was shipping more than 5.0 million b/d.
• The September spike. The daily Brent spot price reached about $131 a barrel on September 15, its September high. The pipeline was repaired and had partially resumed flows as of September 22.

The October Attacks in Saudi Arabia

WTI's latest stretch at or above $100 began on October 15. Around the same time, news outlets reported a series of attacks on Saudi targets:

• According to CNBC, Saudi officials said on October 14 that an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran had been attacked overnight, with no injuries reported.
• On October 19, Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claims, CNBC reported.
• Bloomberg reported on October 21 that two people were killed in a drone attack on the Shaybah oil field, while the Saudi Energy Ministry said operations at the field were not affected.
• CNBC, citing Reuters, reported on October 23 that Saudi Aramco told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely.

The spot prices in the tables end on October 20, so events after that date are not reflected in them. In futures trading, front-month WTI settled below $100 on October 21 and 22, at $97.15 and $99.47, then rose to $103.27 on October 23.

Diesel vs Gasoline Prices: The Split at the Pump

At the pump, the same crude rally has produced two different results. From June 29 to October 19, the national average for on-highway diesel rose 34.4%, while regular gasoline rose 11.8%.

Weekly Retail Prices in 2026

Weekly national averages, with each fuel's 2026 high in bold:

The two fuels peaked months apart. Gasoline's 2026 high was $4.500 in the week of May 11, while diesel's came in the week of September 21, at $6.529.

Since September 21, gasoline has fallen 4.3% and diesel 3.9%. In the latest week, though, they moved in opposite directions: gasoline fell to $4.284, its fourth weekly decline in a row, while diesel rose from $6.179 to $6.276.

The Diesel Premium More Than Doubled

The larger change is in the gap between the two fuels:

On June 29, a gallon of diesel cost $0.837 more than a gallon of regular gasoline. By the week of October 19, the premium was $1.992, more than twice as large, even though diesel had eased from its September high.

The Same Split in Wholesale Prices and Crack Spreads

One step up the supply chain, the split is sharper. In New York Harbor, a major trading hub for refined fuels, spot prices for conventional gasoline and ultra-low-sulfur diesel have moved in opposite directions since June:

Wholesale gasoline, at $2.897 a gallon on October 20, was 5.0% below its June 29 level and 21.4% below $3.686 on September 23. Wholesale diesel, at $5.265, was 58.8% above June 29 and only 1.9% below its September 16 high of $5.365.

WTI crude rose 50.1% over the same period. Wholesale gasoline is nonetheless cheaper than in late June, even though the crude oil it is made from costs far more.

What Is a Crack Spread?

A crack spread is the price difference between a refined product and crude oil, a rough gauge of what refiners earn turning crude into that product.

The spreads in the next table use a simple method: the New York Harbor spot price per gallon, times 42 gallons per barrel, minus the WTI spot price per barrel. It is a simple gauge, not the industry's 3-2-1 measure and not any refiner's actual margin.

Gasoline and Diesel Crack Spreads Since June

On June 29, the two spreads were close: $56.19 a barrel for gasoline and $67.40 for diesel. Since late September they have pulled far apart.

The gasoline spread fell from about $61 a barrel on September 23 to about $14 on October 20. The diesel spread stayed between about $98 and $125 on every trading day in that period, ending at $113.24.

Why Are Diesel Prices So High?

In the EIA's account, the diesel market is extremely tight. U.S. distillate stocks were 9.3% below their 2021-2025 average for the week ending October 16, East Coast stocks were 32% below their seasonal average in September, and the heating season is starting.

Distillate is the fuel category that includes diesel fuel and heating oil, so a shortage reaches both road freight and home heating.

Distillate Inventories Below Normal

U.S. inventories in the week ending October 16, 2026:

Both are below normal, distillate more so. Distillate stocks were also below the 115,551 thousand barrels of a year earlier.

Distillate stocks rose after their May low, then fell again:

Stocks have fallen 4.0% since the week ending June 26. At 104,286 thousand barrels, they are closer to the 2026 low of 100,799 than to the 2021-2025 average of 114,949.

The EIA links this shortage to the price of crude itself:

"

Additional upward pressure on crude oil prices stems from extreme tightness in diesel markets that raises demand for crude oil in order for refiners to meet diesel demand.

— U.S. Energy Information Administration (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 6, 2026)

In other words, the effort to make enough diesel adds to demand for crude. The International Energy Agency warned in its October report that constraints on diesel markets could continue well into 2027, CNBC reported on October 14.

The East Coast and the Heating Season

The EIA singles out the East Coast, where tight supply meets winter demand:

• Distillate inventories in the region were 32% below their five-year (2021-2025) seasonal average in September.
• The East Coast consumes more distillate than it produces. It imported 124,000 b/d in 2025, about 10% of regional consumption, mostly from Canada.
• Imports to the region peak between December and February.
• The EIA expects East Coast inventories to remain between 20% and 30% below the five-year average through the coming winter.

Why Are Gas Prices Going Down?

Gasoline's path since mid-September reflects several things at once:

• The calendar. The summer gasoline season for retailers ended on September 15.
• A cheaper blend. Winter-grade gasoline costs less to produce than the summer grade.
• A shrinking margin. The gasoline crack spread has collapsed since late September, as the crack-spread table shows.
• A slow pass-through. Pump prices follow wholesale prices down with a lag.

The Switch to Winter-Grade Gasoline

Reid vapor pressure (RVP) is a measure of how easily gasoline evaporates, and summer rules cap it. Winter-grade gasoline, often called winter blend, has a higher RVP.

The EIA explains the seasonal pattern in three statements:

• "The summer season for retailers and wholesale purchasers runs from June 1 to September 15."
• "Gasoline with lower RVP is more expensive to produce because it requires pricier components for blending."
• "Although not mandated, switching back to winter-grade gasoline in the fall is common because of its lower production cost."

Futures markets switch two weeks earlier. RBOB is the main U.S. gasoline futures contract, and the EIA notes: "On September 1, the underlying commodity of the RBOB front month contract reverts back to a higher RVP specification."

According to the EIA, that represents a lower-cost gasoline, and the gasoline crack spread declines to reflect it.

The seasonal switch is one cause the EIA describes, not the only one. The gasoline crack spread collapsed alongside it, which is how wholesale gasoline ended up below its June 29 level while crude rose.

Why Pump Prices Lag Wholesale Prices

Wholesale gasoline in New York Harbor fell 21.4% from September 23 to October 20. Over nearly the same weeks, the national retail average fell 4.3%, from the week of September 21 to the week of October 19.

New York Harbor is one regional hub, so the comparison shows the direction of wholesale prices rather than a like-for-like national figure.

The EIA addresses that gap directly: "Decreases in wholesale crack spreads will not immediately translate into lower retail prices."

Its explanation turns on retail and distribution margins, the slice of the pump price that covers moving fuel from the wholesale market to the station and running the station:

"

So far in 2026, these retail and distribution margins have been depressed because of surging wholesale prices, but we expect them to increase back above the five-year average in 2027 after wholesale prices begin to decrease.

— U.S. Energy Information Administration (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 6, 2026)

A margin that rebuilds as wholesale prices fall means pump prices drop later, and by less, than wholesale prices.

What It Means for Drivers, Freight and Heating Oil

A 15-Gallon Tank of Gasoline

At the national average, 15 gallons of regular gasoline cost $57.47 in the week of June 29 and $64.26 in the week of October 19.

These are national averages, so prices at any one station can be higher or lower.

Freight and Heating Oil Costs

Diesel is the fuel that moves goods. It runs:

• Trucks
• Trains
• Farm equipment
• Boats and some ships

A higher diesel price therefore raises the cost of moving freight. That is a general mechanism, and how far it passes into the prices of goods depends on many other factors. The interest-rate side of higher energy costs is covered in whether the Fed will raise rates in October.

Homes that heat mainly with heating oil are about 3% of U.S. households, mostly in the Northeast. In its Winter Fuels Outlook, the EIA says they face heating oil prices up more than 30% from last winter. It expects their heating oil spending to rise 21%, with a milder Northeast winter offsetting part of the price increase.

What the EIA Expects for Diesel and Gasoline

The EIA's October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook includes forecasts for both fuels. They are the EIA's projections, not Money365.Market forecasts, and like any forecast they are uncertain; actual prices may differ materially.

• Retail diesel: above $6 a gallon in October, then coming down gradually with crude oil prices and a slight recovery in inventories.
• Retail gasoline: about the same in October as in September, then slowly decreasing with crude oil prices.
• Crack spreads: the gasoline crack spread decreasing but remaining above seasonal averages through the beginning of 2027 because of low U.S. inventories. U.S. distillate inventories stay below the 2021-2025 average throughout the forecast period, keeping diesel crack spreads elevated.

A Forecast Finalized Before the October Attacks

The EIA finalized the model inputs for this outlook on October 1, 2026. That was before the mid-October attacks on Saudi targets, so the forecasts do not take those events into account.

What to Watch

Two gauges from this article will show whether the diesel squeeze is easing:

• Weekly U.S. distillate stocks, against their 2021-2025 average for the same week
• The diesel crack spread, which has stayed near or above $100 a barrel since late September

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is diesel more expensive than gasoline right now?

U.S. distillate stocks, which include diesel, were 9.3% below their 2021-2025 average in the week ending October 16, and the EIA describes "extreme tightness in diesel markets." In the week of October 19, retail diesel cost $1.992 a gallon more than regular gasoline.

Why are gas prices going down if oil is above $100?

Gasoline's margin over crude has shrunk. The gasoline crack spread fell from about $61 to about $14 a barrel between September 23 and October 20, and the EIA ties gasoline's seasonal easing to cheaper winter-grade fuel after the summer season ended on September 15.

What is a crack spread?

A crack spread is the price difference between a refined product and crude oil, a rough gauge of what refiners earn turning crude into that product. A simple version multiplies the New York Harbor spot price per gallon by 42 and subtracts the WTI spot price per barrel.

What is winter-grade gasoline?

It is gasoline with a higher Reid vapor pressure than the summer grade, which means it evaporates more easily. The EIA says switching back to winter-grade gasoline in the fall is common because of its lower production cost.

When was oil above $100 in 2026?

WTI spot closed at or above $100 a barrel in three stretches, peaking at $114.58 on April 7:

• On 24 of the 40 trading days between March 27 and May 22
• From September 10 to 18
• From October 15 to October 20, the latest daily spot data

Brent, the international benchmark, has closed above $100 every day since September 3.

What does the EIA expect for fuel prices in 2027?

In its October 6 outlook, the EIA forecasts retail diesel averaging about $4.50 a gallon in 2027 and retail gasoline just under $3.60, with Brent crude at $84 a barrel. The EIA finalized the inputs on October 1, before the mid-October attacks on Saudi targets.